Problem

On a given weekend in the fall, a tire company can buy television and advertising time for a college football game, a baseball game, or a professional football game. If the company sponsors the college football game, there is a 80% chance of a high rating, a 50% chance if they sponsor a baseball game, and a 70% chance if they sponsor a professional football game. The probabilities of the company sponsoring these various games are 0.5,0.3, and 0.2 , respectively. Suppose the company does get a high rating, find the probability that it sponsored a professional football game.

The probability is
(Type an integer or a simplified fraction.)

Answer

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Answer

Final Answer: The probability that the company sponsored a professional football game given that it got a high rating is approximately 0.203.

Steps

Step 1 :Define the events: Let A be the event that the company sponsored a professional football game and B be the event that the company got a high rating.

Step 2 :We are given the following probabilities: P(A)=0.2, P(B|A)=0.7, P(A)=0.5, P(B|A)=0.8, P(A)=0.3, P(B|A)=0.5, where A' is the event that the company sponsored a college football game and A'' is the event that the company sponsored a baseball game.

Step 3 :Calculate the total probability of getting a high rating, P(B), using the law of total probability: P(B)=P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|A)P(A)=0.70.2+0.80.5+0.50.3=0.69.

Step 4 :Use Bayes' theorem to find the probability that the company sponsored a professional football game given that it got a high rating, P(A|B): P(A|B)=P(B|A)P(A)P(B)=0.70.20.69=0.20289855072463764.

Step 5 :Final Answer: The probability that the company sponsored a professional football game given that it got a high rating is approximately 0.203.

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