Problem

A director of reservations believes that $8 \%$ of the ticketed passengers are no-shows. If the director is right, what is the probability that the proportion of no-shows in a sample of 596 ticketed passengers would differ from the population proportion more than $3 \%$ ? Round your answer to four decimal places. Answer How to enter your answer (opens in new window) Tables Keyboard Sh

Solution

Step 1 :Calculate the standard deviation of the sampling distribution (σp̂) using the formula: \(σp̂ = \sqrt{\frac{p(1 - p)}{n}}\)

Step 2 :Substitute the given values into the formula: \(σp̂ = \sqrt{\frac{0.08(1 - 0.08)}{596}}\)

Step 3 :Solve the equation to get: \(σp̂ = 0.011\)

Step 4 :We are looking for the probability that the sample proportion differs from the population proportion by more than 0.03, which can be written as: \(P(|p̂ - p| > 0.03)\)

Step 5 :This can be rewritten as: \(P(p̂ < p - 0.03 \text{ or } p̂ > p + 0.03)\)

Step 6 :Standardize these values using the Z-score formula: \(Z = \frac{p̂ - p}{σp̂}\)

Step 7 :For \(p̂ < p - 0.03\), the Z-score is: \(Z1 = \frac{0.08 - 0.03 - 0.08}{0.011} = -2.73\)

Step 8 :For \(p̂ > p + 0.03\), the Z-score is: \(Z2 = \frac{0.08 + 0.03 - 0.08}{0.011} = 2.73\)

Step 9 :Using the standard normal distribution table, the probability corresponding to Z1 is 0.0032 and the probability corresponding to Z2 is 0.9968

Step 10 :The probability that the sample proportion differs from the population proportion by more than 0.03 is therefore \(P(Z < -2.73 \text{ or } Z > 2.73) = 2 * (1 - 0.9968)\)

Step 11 :\(\boxed{0.0064}\) or \(\boxed{0.64\%}\) when rounded to four decimal places is the final answer

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Source: https://solvelyapp.com/problems/jtQs64064i/

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