Step 1 :Given that the population mean \(\mu = 11.6\) minutes and the population standard deviation \(\sigma = 4.3\) minutes. The sample size is \(n = 40\).
Step 2 :We first calculate the standard deviation of the sample means (standard error), \(\sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{4.3}{\sqrt{40}} \approx 0.68\) minutes.
Step 3 :We want to find the probability that the sample mean is less than 10 minutes. To do this, we standardize the score to get a z-score, \(Z = \frac{X - \mu_{\bar{x}}}{\sigma_{\bar{x}}} = \frac{10 - 11.6}{0.68} \approx -2.35\).
Step 4 :Using a standard normal distribution table, we find that the probability of getting a z-score less than -2.35 is approximately 0.0094. So, the probability that a random sample of 40 oil changes results in a sample mean time less than 10 minutes is \(\boxed{0.0094}\).
Step 5 :To find the mean oil-change time that corresponds to a 10% chance, we find the z-score that corresponds to a cumulative probability of 0.10, which is approximately -1.28.
Step 6 :We then use the formula for the z-score to solve for X, \(X = Z\sigma_{\bar{x}} + \mu_{\bar{x}} = -1.28(0.68) + 11.6 \approx 10.7\) minutes.
Step 7 :So, the manager should set the goal at \(\boxed{10.7}\) minutes. If the mean oil-change time is at or below this value, there would be a 10% chance of this occurring.